-
摘要: 多米诺效应是造成重大事故损失加剧、灾难升级的一个重要原因。爆炸碎片是化工区多米诺事故的重要诱因之一。以球罐液体沸腾进而扩展为蒸气云爆炸（BLEVE）为例，从爆炸碎片飞行过程的规律性及碎片产生抛射的不确定性出发，采用蒙特卡罗方法进行模拟，利用相关数据和资料确定爆炸碎片产生和飞行中的不确定性参数，计算出碎片的抛射范围。并在此基础上，计算得到了不同充装水平下的球罐爆炸后产生碎片碰撞两种目标容器的概率。研究发现：当目标容器不同时，储罐爆炸产生碎片的碰撞概率差别较大；当目标容器一定时，不同充装水平的储罐可造成的多米诺效应虽有不同，但差别不大。研究结果对于定量评价储罐爆炸碎片的危害性，减缓和控制碎片产生的风险，确定罐区之间防护碎片危害所需的安全距离等提供了指导和借鉴。Abstract: Domino effect is a well-known cause of major accidents in the chemical process industries, resulting in overall consequences which are more severe than those of the primary event. Fragment projection is one of the major escalation vectors to cause domino effect. The present work took a spherical tank with boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) as an example. The probability distribution density of uncertain parameters in the generation and flight of fragments were determined by the data from literatures, and simulated by Monte-Carlo method. Then the projectile distances of fragments were calculated. In this way, the impact probabilities of fragments on objective vessels were attained. The impact probabilities of fragments on the different objective vessels have great gaps. However, the impact probabilities of fragments produced by vessels with different filling levels on the same object are almost same. This method is of great significance for the risk assessment and control of fragments from explosion of spherical tank. It can be used to provide guidance and reference for determining safety distance to prevent domino effect of fragments between storage tanks.
-
Key words:
- spherical tank /
- fragment /
- BLEVE /
- Monte-Carlo /
- uncertainty
-
Cozzani V, Gubinelli G, Antonioni G, et al. The Assessment of Risk Caused by Domino Effect in Quantitative Area Risk Analysis [J]. J Hazard Mater, 2005, 127(1-3): 14-30. Cozzani V, Gubinelli G, Salzano E. Escalation Thresholds in the Assessment of Domino Accidental Events [J]. J Hazard Mater, 2006, 129(1-3): 1-21. Khan F I, Abbasi S A. DOMIFFECT (Domino Effect): User-Friendly Software for Domino Effect Analysis [J]. Environmental Modeling Software, 1998, 13(2): 163-177. Pietersen C M. Analysis of the LPG Disaster in Mexico City [J]. J Hazard Mater, 1988, 20: 85-107. Hauptmanns U. A Monte-Carlo Based Procedure for Treating the Flight of Missiles from Tank Explosions [J]. Probab Eng Mech, 2001, 16(4): 307-312. Hauptmanns U. A Procedure for Analyzing the Flight of Missiles from Explosions of Cylindrical Vessels [J]. J Loss Prev Process Ind, 2001, 14(5): 395-402. Gubinelli G, Zanelli S, Cozzani V. A Simplified Model for the Assessment of the Impact Probability of Fragments [J]. J Hazard Mater, 2004, 116(3): 175-187. Less F P. Loss Prevention in the Process Industries Hazard Identification, Assessment and Control [M]. 2nd ed. Oxford: Butterworth Heinemann, 1996. Center for Chemical Process Safety of American Institute of Chemical Engineers. Guidelines for Evaluating the Characteristics of Vapor Cloud Explosions, Flash Fires, and BLEVEs [M]. New York: American Institute of Chemical Engineers, 1994. Holden P L, Reeves A B. Fragment Hazards from Failures of Pressurized Liquefied Gas Vessels [J]. IchemE Symposium Series, 1985, 93: 205-220. Pula R, Khan F I, Veitch B, et al. A Model for Estimating the Probability of Missile Impact: Missiles Originating from Bursting Horizontal Cylindrical Vessels [J]. Process Safety Progress, 2007, 26(2): 129-139. -
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 7388
- HTML全文浏览量: 268
- PDF下载量: 861
下载:
